IranIsraelGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIsrael Election
Total volume: 32.5M US$ 24h volume: 71,443 US$ Liquidity: 170,370 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.815 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? — YES probability from 51% on 7 Aug 2026 to 80% on 1 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 31 82%, November 30 69%, December 31 62%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only