Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by November 30?

IranIsraelLebanonPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

Updated:23 Oct

Implied probability November 3059%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 24% / ask 93%

Ends30 Nov 2026 in 40 days

Total volume: 0 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 150 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.585 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over timeNovember 30

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

November 30thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
59%
October 31thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
40%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only