IranIsraelLebanonPoliticsceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Total volume: 18,411 US$ 24h volume: 566 US$ Liquidity: 48,209 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.095 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period…
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by October 31? (2 week pause) — YES probability from 28% on 30 Sept 2026 to 9.5% on 2 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: September 30 1.7%, October 15 1.9%, October 31 9.5%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only