Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

IranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability8%

Move1d −3 pp1w 0 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 7% / ask 9%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 1,425 US$ 24h volume: 199 US$ Liquidity: 15,933 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.08 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only