Israeli airspace closed by December 31? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

IranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3118%

Move1d −0.5 pp1w −1 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 17% / ask 18%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 164,680 US$ 24h volume: 2,591 US$ Liquidity: 65,116 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.175 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only