Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Iran RegimeIranMojtaba KhameneiKhameneiGeopoliticsKharg IslandStrait of HormuzU.S. x Iran

Updated:3 Oct

Implied probability December 317.5%

Move1d +1 pp1w +2 pp1m 0 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 7% / ask 8%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 90 days

Total volume: 75.3M US$ 24h volume: 109,768 US$ Liquidity: 365,058 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.075 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Iran RegimeIranMojtaba KhameneiKhameneiGeopoliticsKharg IslandStrait of HormuzU.S. x Iran

Updated:3 Oct

Implied probability December 317.5%

Move1d +1 pp1w +2 pp1m 0 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 7% / ask 8%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 90 days

Total volume: 75.3M US$ 24h volume: 109,768 US$ Liquidity: 365,058 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.075 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31