OilIranYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopoliticsSaudi Arabia
Total volume: 77,923 US$ 24h volume: 11,886 US$ Liquidity: 96,486 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.665 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time.
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? — YES probability from 52% on 7 Oct 2026 to 66% on 11 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 15 8%, October 31 36%, November 30 67%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only