Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?

OilIranYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopoliticsSaudi Arabia

Updated:7 Oct

Implied probability November 3067%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 66% / ask 67%

Ends30 Nov 2026 in 55 days

Total volume: 7,931 US$ 24h volume: 7,990 US$ Liquidity: 65,498 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.665 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time.

YES probability over timeNovember 30

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

Outcomes

November 30Volume: 329 US$
67%
October 31Volume: 2,666 US$
52%
October 15Volume: 6,050 US$
22%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only