Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31?

IranPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3116%

Move1d 0 pp1w +3.5 pp1m +1.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 15% / ask 17%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 59,160 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 12,090 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.16 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31?

IranPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3116%

Move1d 0 pp1w +3.5 pp1m +1.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 15% / ask 17%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 59,160 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 12,090 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.16 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31