Panama Canal effectively closed by December 31?

OilIranYemenhouthiHouthisred seatrafficPolitics

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 316.5%thin market

Move1d −6 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 3% / ask 10%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 380 US$ 24h volume: 90 US$ Liquidity: 26,130 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.065 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

Show table

Outcomes

December 31thinly traded1d −6 ppVolume: 3 US$
6.5%
November 30thinly traded1d −4 ppVolume: 50 US$
4.5%
October 31thinly traded1d −1.8 ppVolume: 145 US$
1.4%
October 15thinly traded1d −0.1 ppVolume: 182 US$
0.5%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only