Panama Canal effectively closed by December 31?

OilIranYemenhouthiHouthisred seatrafficPolitics

Updated:11 Oct

Implied probability December 3121%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 5% / ask 35%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 83 days

Total volume: 202 US$ 24h volume: 202 US$ Liquidity: 10,693 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.205 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

Outcomes

December 31Volume: 3 US$
21%
November 30Volume: 0 US$
20%
October 31Volume: 57 US$
15%
October 15Volume: 142 US$
1.2%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only