Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

IranYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastSaudi ArabiaBab el-Mandeb

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3127%

Move1d +10.5 pp1w +4.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 22% / ask 32%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 40,611 US$ 24h volume: 911 US$ Liquidity: 15,278 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.27 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only