Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Trump CabinetGeopoliticsPoliticsTrumpIranHegseth

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability22%

Move1d 0 pp1w −2 pp1m −5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 21% / ask 22%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 483,027 US$ 24h volume: 1,613 US$ Liquidity: 35,129 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.215 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Trump CabinetGeopoliticsPoliticsTrumpIranHegseth

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability22%

Move1d 0 pp1w −2 pp1m −5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 21% / ask 22%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 483,027 US$ 24h volume: 1,613 US$ Liquidity: 35,129 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.215 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over time

YES probability over time