Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

IranSenateMidtermsPoliticsElectionsGeopoliticsUnited StatesStrait of Hormuz

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate31%

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 31% / ask 32%

Ends3 Nov 2026 in 24 days

Total volume: 31,697 US$ 24h volume: 31,697 US$ Liquidity: 443,499 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.312 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

See market rules.

YES probability over timeNo Hormuz Agreement; R Senate

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

No Hormuz Agreement; R SenateVolume: 21,454 US$
31%
Hormuz Agreement; R SenateVolume: 10,243 US$
4%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only