Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?

OilIranYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopoliticsSaudi Arabia

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability November 3082%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 81% / ask 83%

Ends30 Nov 2026 in 60 days

Total volume: 2.2M US$ 24h volume: 56,153 US$ Liquidity: 66,458 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.82 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down.

YES probability over timeNovember 30

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

Outcomes

November 30Volume: 924 US$
82%
November 15Volume: 300 US$
74%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only