Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on October 2?

OilIranHormuztankerMilitaryGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:3 Oct

Implied probability October 257%thin market

Move1d +29.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 30% / ask 83%

Ends2 Oct 2026 in 1 day

Total volume: 388 US$ 24h volume: 308 US$ Liquidity: 12,084 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.565 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeOctober 2

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

Outcomes

October 21d +29.5 ppVolume: 164 US$
57%
October 1Volume: 40 US$Awaiting result
October 231d +23.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
52%
October 51d +23 ppVolume: 0 US$
51%
October 291d +22 ppVolume: 0 US$
51%
October 161d +20.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
51%
October 241d +21.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
51%
October 101d +22.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 111d +22.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 121d +20 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 131d +19 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 151d +19.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 171d +21 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 81d +22.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 91d +21.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 191d +23 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 221d +20 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 311d +20.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 281d +21 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 301d +18 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 181d +20 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 71d +22 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 211d +21.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
50%
October 141d +20 ppVolume: 0 US$
49%
October 251d +20.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
49%
October 201d +19 ppVolume: 0 US$
48%
October 61d +19 ppVolume: 0 US$
48%
October 271d +15.5 ppVolume: 0 US$
47%
October 261d +19 ppVolume: 0 US$
47%
October 31d −0.5 ppVolume: 124 US$
24%
October 41d −13 ppVolume: 60 US$
15%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only