OilIranHormuztankerMilitaryGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 157,996 US$ 24h volume: 400 US$ Liquidity: 31,160 US$
The deadline has passed and the market has not announced the result yet; the last price is no longer the odds of an open event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00).
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on September 21? — YES probability from 30% on 17 Sept 2026 to 93.3% on 1 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: September 17 50%, September 20 1.6%, September 21 96%, September 22 3.9%, September 24 7%, September 25 5.5%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only