PoliticsshipsGeopoliticsEconomyIran CeasefireIrantransitHormuz
Total volume: 13.8M US$ 24h volume: 35,270 US$ Liquidity: 512,087 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.205 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? — YES probability from 80% on 11 May 2026 to 21% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only