OilIranHormuzPoliticsGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 544,857 US$ 24h volume: 5,542 US$ Liquidity: 202,953 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.095 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? — YES probability from 31% on 11 Aug 2026 to 9.5% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only