OilIranHormuzPoliticsGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 1.6M US$ 24h volume: 91,161 US$ Liquidity: 280,923 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.024 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? — YES probability from 23% on 11 Aug 2026 to 2.5% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only