OilIranPoliticsGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 12.3M US$ 24h volume: 60,239 US$ Liquidity: 1.1M US$
The deadline has passed and the market has not announced the result yet; the last price is no longer the odds of an open event.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — YES probability from 54% on 2 Jul 2026 to 0.1% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only