Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31?

IranoutageKhameneiPoliticscloudflareGeopolitics

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 3127%thin market

Move1d +0.5 pp1w +6.5 pp1m −9 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 18% / ask 36%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 255,420 US$ 24h volume: 181 US$ Liquidity: 804 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.27 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31?

IranoutageKhameneiPoliticscloudflareGeopolitics

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 3127%thin market

Move1d +0.5 pp1w +6.5 pp1m −9 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 18% / ask 36%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 255,420 US$ 24h volume: 181 US$ Liquidity: 804 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.27 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31