Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

IranTrumpYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopolitics

Updated:3 Oct

Implied probability5%thin market

Move1d −1.3 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 3.1% / ask 6.8%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 957 US$ 24h volume: 37 US$ Liquidity: 10,939 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.05 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified…

YES probability over time

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?1d −1.3 ppVolume: 957 US$
5%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only