Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by December 31?

IranTrumpEconomyPolitics

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 3113%

Move1d −0.5 pp1w −4.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 10% / ask 15%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 23,466 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 2,480 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.125 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by…

YES probability over timeDecember 31

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Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

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Outcomes

November 30thinly traded1d −1 pp1w −0.5 ppVolume: 914 US$
6%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by December 31?

IranTrumpEconomyPolitics

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 3113%

Move1d −0.5 pp1w −4.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 10% / ask 15%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 23,466 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 2,480 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.125 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Show table

Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

Show table

Outcomes

November 30thinly traded1d −1 pp1w −0.5 ppVolume: 914 US$
6%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only