Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by December 31?

IranTrumpEconomyPolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3117%thin market

Move1d −1.5 pp1w +2.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 15% / ask 19%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 22,749 US$ 24h volume: 997 US$ Liquidity: 2,577 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.17 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by…

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

Outcomes

December 311d −1.5 pp1w +2.5 ppVolume: 878 US$
17%
November 301d −41 ppVolume: 678 US$
7.5%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only