IranTrumpPoliticsGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 110,160 US$ 24h volume: 5,770 US$ Liquidity: 35,861 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.027 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration publicly announces that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will…
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? — YES probability from 4% on 18 Aug 2026 to 2.4% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only