IranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Total volume: 34.7M US$ 24h volume: 379,927 US$ Liquidity: 538,785 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.71 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31? — YES probability from 77% on 24 Sept 2026 to 71% on 1 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 15 9.5%, October 31 24%, November 30 38%, December 31 54%, March 31 71%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only