IranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x Iran
Total volume: 10.9M US$ 24h volume: 757,986 US$ Liquidity: 1.6M US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.994 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? — YES probability from 88% on 3 Oct 2026 to 97.9% on 11 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 12 99%, October 15 95%, October 31 79%, November 15 60%, November 30 44%, December 31 35%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only