IranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x Iran
Total volume: 5.5M US$ 24h volume: 145,091 US$ Liquidity: 293,179 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.915 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? — YES probability from 89% on 29 Sept 2026 to 91.5% on 1 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 7 92%, October 15 82%, October 31 61%, November 15 46%, November 30 39%, December 31 32%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only