IranUS-IranPeace DealGeopoliticsMiddle EastIran Ceasefire
Total volume: 19.9M US$ 24h volume: 7,828 US$ Liquidity: 532,647 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.145 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31? — YES probability from 47% on 26 Jun 2026 to 15% on 11 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 31 1.6%, November 30 6.5%, December 31 15%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only