IranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 1.5M US$ 24h volume: 29,929 US$ Liquidity: 153,615 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.415 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes…
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? — YES probability from 53% on 28 Sept 2026 to 44% on 1 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 7 1.9%, October 15 5.5%, October 31 14%, November 30 28%, December 31 42%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only