PoliticsTrumpIranU.S. x IranGeopoliticsconscriptselective service
Total volume: 534,129 US$ 24h volume: 111 US$ Liquidity: 34,448 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.039 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or…
US military draft authorized in 2026? — YES probability from 11% on 13 Mar 2026 to 3.9% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only