PoliticsU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranTrumpNegotiation Topics
Total volume: 29.5M US$ 24h volume: 515 US$ Liquidity: 99,944 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.055 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? — YES probability from 38% on 18 Apr 2026 to 5.5% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only