Reza PahlaviIran RegimeGeopoliticsWorldIranPoliticsMiddle EastTrump
Total volume: 638,871 US$ 24h volume: 40 US$ Liquidity: 27,740 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.039 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? — YES probability from 13% on 5 Jan 2026 to 3.8% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only