OilIranTrumpPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Total volume: 416,282 US$ 24h volume: 106 US$ Liquidity: 12,775 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.075 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by October 31? — YES probability from 49% on 7 Sept 2026 to 7.5% on 11 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only