Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.16 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
Resolution rules (the market's own text)
Rules
YES probability over timeDilution of Iran's Uranium
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? — YES probability from 68% on 24 Jun 2026 to 17% on 11 Oct 2026
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Outcomes
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only