Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.555 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
Resolution rules (the market's own text)
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
YES probability over timeNo Meeting by December 31
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place No Meeting by December 31? — YES probability from 13% on 22 Sept 2026 to 57% on 11 Oct 2026
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Outcomes
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only