OilIranNavalHormuzUS-IranGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 49,989 US$ 24h volume: 13 US$ Liquidity: 44,708 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.265 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31? — YES probability from 52% on 26 Aug 2026 to 27% on 2 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only