OilIranPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 553,795 US$ 24h volume: 1,994 US$ Liquidity: 185,173 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.865 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? — YES probability from 45% on 8 Jul 2026 to 87% on 11 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only