Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.415 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
Resolution rules (the market's own text)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
YES probability over timeSteve Witkoff
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — YES probability from 16% on 1 Oct 2026 to 43% on 11 Oct 2026
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Outcomes
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only