PoliticsRegional SpilloverKurdsIraqGeopoliticsKurdistanKurdistan Regional GovernmentIran
Total volume: 273,182 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 13,716 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.062 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59…
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? — YES probability from 42% on 1 May 2026 to 6.2% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only