Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

OilIranSenateMidtermsPoliticsElectionsGeopoliticsUnited States

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate59%

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 58% / ask 59%

Ends3 Nov 2026 in 23 days

Total volume: 13,885 US$ 24h volume: 14,106 US$ Liquidity: 505,550 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.585 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

YES probability over timeNo Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D SenateVolume: 4,790 US$
59%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R SenateVolume: 1,984 US$
34%
Agreement + Oil < $80; D SenateVolume: 3,504 US$
4.6%
Agreement + Oil < $80; R SenateVolume: 3,608 US$
4%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only