Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

OilIranSenateMidtermsPoliticsElectionsGeopoliticsUnited States

Updated:13 Oct

Implied probability No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate62%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 61% / ask 62%

Ends3 Nov 2026 in 23 days

Total volume: 25,266 US$ 24h volume: 26,276 US$ Liquidity: 856,841 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.616 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

YES probability over timeNo Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senatethinly tradedVolume: 473 US$
62%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R SenateVolume: 12,912 US$
32%
Agreement + Oil < $80; D SenateVolume: 8,065 US$
3%
Agreement + Oil < $80; R SenateVolume: 3,817 US$
2.1%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only