Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

IranSenateMidtermsPoliticsElectionsGeopoliticsUnited StatesStrait of Hormuz

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability No Hormuz Agreement89%

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 89% / ask 89%

Ends3 Nov 2026 in 24 days

Total volume: 386,772 US$ 24h volume: 393,890 US$ Liquidity: 1.2M US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.89 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.

YES probability over timeNo Hormuz Agreement

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

No Hormuz AgreementVolume: 106,297 US$
89%
Hormuz Agreement; D SenateVolume: 114,221 US$
6.3%
Hormuz Agreement; R SenateVolume: 166,253 US$
3.6%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only