IranPoliticsIsraelIsrael x IranIran CeasefireMiddle EastGeopolitics
Total volume: 33,030 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 704 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.17 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? — YES probability from 22% on 8 Apr 2026 to 15% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only