Israel x IranMiddle EastGeopoliticsIsraelIran
Total volume: 55,061 US$ 24h volume: 25 US$ Liquidity: 10,912 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.265 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? — YES probability from 34% on 4 Apr 2026 to 26% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only