Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by December 31?

IranIsraeloutagesPoliticsinternetGeopoliticsMiddle EastU.S. x Iran

Updated:13 Oct

Implied probability December 3113%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 11% / ask 14%

Ends1 Nov 2026 in 20 days

Total volume: 595 US$ 24h volume: 595 US$ Liquidity: 25,546 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.125 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or an Iranian proxy group physically damages undersea internet cables between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

December 31thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
13%
October 31thinly tradedVolume: 595 US$
4%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only