Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

PoliticsIranMojtaba KhameneiGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability1.8%

Move1d −0.1 pp1w 0 pp1m −0.3 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 1.8% / ask 1.9%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 79,428 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 87,611 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.018 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

PoliticsIranMojtaba KhameneiGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability1.8%

Move1d −0.1 pp1w 0 pp1m −0.3 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 1.8% / ask 1.9%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 79,428 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 87,611 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.018 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over time

YES probability over time