Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31?

IranBahrainMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle EastMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability October 3130%thin market

Move1d −35.5 pp1w −6 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 9% / ask 51%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 20 days

Total volume: 5,278 US$ 24h volume: 240 US$ Liquidity: 26 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.3 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Bahrain through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only