Will Iran target Iraq by October 31?

IranIraqMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle EastMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes

Updated:3 Oct

Implied probability October 3151%thin market

Move1d −5.5 pp1w +29.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 43% / ask 59%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 29 days

Total volume: 19,128 US$ 24h volume: 971 US$ Liquidity: 10,647 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.51 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Iraq through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only